Howdy everyone! It’s Oscar Season and I’m here to share my thoughts on who will win, and who should win. ***
Welcome to my Oscars 2017 Preview
There’s some interesting races this year. Everyone thought “La La Land” was the front runner but possibly not so much anymore. The different guilds have announced their winners and these have thrown things for a loop. Let’s keep it short and sweet and get to picking winners! (NOTE:- If you use these for an Oscar pool and lose said pool this disclaimer absolves me of any fault!)
Pretty proud of myself here, saw every movie except for Hacksaw Ridge so throw them out since I haven’t seen it and they’re probably not winning anyway. Of the rest, it comes down to Hidden Fences, oops I mean HIDDEN FIGURES (won SAG’s biggest award), Moonlight (Critic’s darling), and La La Land (Won Producer’s Guild). The SAG makes up the biggest voting block but the PGA usally fortells the winner. Keyword: USUALLY. Last year “The Big Short” won the PGA but the SAG Winner “Spotlight” won the Best Picture Oscar.
I liked, not loved La La Land, and prefer Moonlight and Hidden Figures over it. La La Land has lost some steam the last few weeks, though you couldn’t say the other two are freight trains going into Oscar night. I’m starting to think, if they revealed voting totals, it might be the closest vote in some time. (FYI Disregard the Golden Globes because that’s critic’s voting not the guilds so don’t read too much into that.)
Shout out to “Fences” for being easily the best acted movie. “Arrival” was Ok to me, Loved “Hell or High Water”, “Lion” and “Manchester by the Sea” were great (slight nod to MBTS). Personal choice would come down to “Hell or High Water”, “Fences” “Moonlight”, or “Hidden Figures”. And my Oscar would go to “Fences” because the acting in it alone was fantastic and heads and shoulders above the rest. “La La Land” has too many nominations and Hollywood loves patting itself on the back, so they’ll win Best Picture.
Sidenote to the Oscars 2017 season Though not considered an Oscar Movie, was kinda hoping “Deadpool” would’ve gotten a nomination here. Sorry, not sorry, but that was my favorite movie from last year. Ryan Reynolds is pitch perfect as the Merc With A Mouth, and even got a SAG Nomination. Since it didn’t get nominated it don’t feel right choosing it as my pick, but if nominated would’ve gotten My Pick. If it’s on TV, I’m watching it. It’s gotten to the point where I know the dialogue word for word. I love “Deadpool”!
Will win: “La La Land” WINNER (eventually) Moonlight.
My Pick: “Fences”
Oscars 2017 – Best Director
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land (Won the Director’s Guild Award)
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Again I didn’t see “Hacksaw Ridge” so throw them out. The winner will be Damien Chazelle since he’s been sweeping all the director’s awards. Look, “La La Land” was good, but to me I thought Barry Jenkins did a better job. He got great performances out of everyone (especially Little and Chiron), and his use of mood and atmosphere drew me into the movie. He did more with less. “La La Land” kinda meandered to me a little bit, but “Moonlight” was focused and did not lose me during the film. Also replace Mel Gibson with Denzel Washington, who got robbed here.
Will Win: Damien Chazell
My Pick: Barry Jenkins
Oscars 2017 – Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea as Lee Chandler
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge as Desmond T. Doss
Ryan Gosling – La La Land as Sebastian Wilder
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic as Ben Cash
Denzel Washington – Fences as Troy Maxson (Won the SAG Award)
Was so happy to see Mortensen get nominated here. His performance in “Captain Fantastic” stuck with me and he’s severly underrated as an actor. It came too early in the year to gain any traction during awards season but good to him getting a nomination. Oh, the winner will be Denzel Washington, who shocked everyone by winning the SAG.
It could still be interesting to see who wins though as most thought this was Ryan Gosling’s to lose but the SAG award upset by Washington threw this for a loop. At one point Casey Affleck was a front runner (won the Golden Globe but remember that has no bearing here) for “Manchester by the Sea”, which is a heart wrenching performance. You can feel his heaviness and his portrayal was nomination worthy but I feel like he might get lost in the shuffle. So it’s down to Gosling and Washington and Denzel gets his third Oscar here.
Will Win & My Pick: Denzel Washington
Oscars 2017 – Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert – Elle as Michèle Leblanc
Ruth Negga – Loving as Mildred Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie as Jackie Kennedy
Emma Stone – La La Land as Mia Dolan (Won the SAG Award)
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins as Florence Foster Jenkins
I only saw Negga, Portman, and Stone’s performance, so I can’t judge the other two. Of the three I liked Portman slightly more than Stone. Negga was good too, but not as much as Portman and Stone. Stone has been pretty steady in winning the Best Actress awards so she’s a lock for this, but I prefer Portman who embodied Jackie Kennedy. I didn’t know a lot about her but felt like I know a lot more after seeing “Jackie”. It’s hard to portray a real person sometimes and Portman was Jackie Kennedy, she captured the sadness, the elegance, and the dignity Jackie Kennedy showed through JFK’s death and the events following it.
Will Win: Emma Stone
My Pick: Natalie Portman
Oscars 2017 – Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight as Juan (Won the SAG Award)
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water as Marcus Hamilton
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea as Patrick Chandler
Dev Patel – Lion as Saroo Brierley
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals as Detective Bobby Andes
This is a tough one for me. I didn’t see Michael Shannon’s performance but he’s usally pretty solid, but again, didn’t see it can’t judge it. Kinda feel Dev Patel should’ve been a Lead Actor nominee but I guess he choose to use the ensemble argument.
Of the four I saw I liked all of them but I liked Jeff Bridges the most. His portrayal of a Texas Ranger on the edge of retirement and on the trail of two bank robbers sucked me in the most. Lucas Hedges is gonna be a star and he would be my second choice. He was a pleasant surprise in “Manchester By The Sea”. I had to look his name up when I left the theater cause I kept thinking “Damn that kid is good”.
Ali was nice as well, but his limited screen time kinda hurts him to me, but I will say he used the most of it. He showed multiple sides to a drug dealer trying to help out a lost little boy. He was harsh when he need to be but showed a tender side when Little (the young boy he mentored) need a sympathetic ear. Ali is a lock here as well, and I won’t be mad if he won, but for me, I prefer Bridges.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
My Pick: Jeff Bridges
Oscars 2017 – Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences as Rose Maxson
Naomie Harris – Moonlight as Paula
Nicole Kidman – Lion as Sue Brierley
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures as Dorothy Vaughan
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea as Randi
Hey! I saw all four of these performances! Yay! Viola Davis should be a Lead Actress nominee, no idea why she would choose supporting. Maybe she saw how tough the field was or felt it wasn’t Lead Nominee worthy screen time wise? Either way she won the SAG Award and she earned it. She showed a fierceness and was just as good as Denzel.
Of the others, Naomie Harris and Octavia Spencer stood out the most, then Michelle Williams, and then Nicole Kidman. Harris starts out making you hate her for what she’s doing, but by the end she gets your sympathy as well. Spencer was the center of “Hidden Figures”, bringing some balance to the film between Taraji Henson and Janelle Monae (If Viola Davis had gotten a Lead Actress Nomination I would have wanted to see Monae replace her here, for either “Moonlight” or “Hidden Figures”. She was excellent in both films, she actually could’ve replace Kidman in this category). Williams, like Casey Affleck, carries a sadness and heaviness throughout the film, and makes you feel it. Kidman was Ok, not really standing out like Patel did in “Lion”.
Will Win & My Pick: Viola Davis
Oscars 2017 – Other Categories, or, Quick Picks aka Throwing Darts at my Oscar Chart!:
Best Original Screenplay – Manchester By The Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay – Moonlight (Interesting tidbit: Moonlight and Arrival won the Writer’s Guild Awards but in separate categories! Here they’re nominated in the same category)
Best Animated Film – Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Film – Toni Erdmann WINNER:- The Salesman – Iran
Best Documentary – Feature – O.J.: Made In America
Best Documentary – Short Subject – The White Helmets
Best Live Action Short Film – La Femme et le TGV WINNER:- Sing – Kristof Deak and Anna Udvardy
Best Animated Short Film – Piper
Best Original Score – La La Land
Best Original Song – City of Stars from La La Land (Pulling for “Can’t Fight The Feeling!)
Best Sound Editing – La La Land WINNER:- Arrival
Best Sound Mixing – La La Land WINNER:- Hacksaw Ridge
Best Production Design – La La Land
Best Cinematography – La La Land (Pulling for Moonlight)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Star Trek Beyond WINNER:- Suicide Squad
Best Costume Design – Jackie WINNER :- Fatastic Beasts and Where to Find Them.
Best Film Editing – La La Land WINNER:- Hacksaw Ridge
Best Visual Effects – The Jungle Book
Oh and any Complaints or Comments??? I can be reached on Twitter: @OwenTheTonk, and I read the comments below too!